New York Rangers
The Reigning Rookie of the Year Plays on Long Island. Now Comes the Hard Part.
New York’s two hockey teams are both being rebuilt around players under 22, and this is the season those players stop being prospects and start being evidence.
The Islanders have the defending Calder Trophy winner entering his second year and a rookie forward on the edge of the award conversation. The Rangers have a sophomore winger they need to become a top-six contributor immediately.
Matthew Schaefer, D — Islanders, second season
What he did. Schaefer won the Calder Trophy as a rookie. Not a slow build, not a late surge — it happened right away, which is the rarest version of a rookie season and the one that creates the most pressure afterward.
What’s coming. The sophomore slump is not a myth in hockey. Once the initial wave of excitement passes, the grind of a professional season demands an adjustment most young players have never had to make, and some don’t handle it.
The counterexamples are instructive. Last season’s breakout sophomores — Lane Hutson, Cutter Gauthier, Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake and Josh Doan — all built on strong rookie years and now rank among the league’s best young players. That’s the model, and it isn’t automatic.
What to watch. Whether Schaefer’s minutes and power-play role grow. Defensemen who win the Calder are usually doing something structurally unusual; the question in year two is whether opponents have figured it out.
Victor Eklund, F — Islanders, first season
The rookie on the Islanders side, and one of the names just outside the preseason Calder top ten alongside Winnipeg’s Viggo Björck, Anaheim’s Nikita Klepov, Carolina’s Bradly Nadeau and Ottawa’s Carter Yakemchuk.
Why the organization matters here. The Islanders just produced a Calder winner. That’s not a coincidence you can bank on, but it does mean a young player arriving in this room has a recent template for how the team handles development.
Projection. Middle-six minutes to start, with room to climb if the production justifies it.
Gabe Perreault, F — Rangers, second season
The rookie line. Twelve goals and 27 points — respectable rather than remarkable. The number that matters more: 19 of those points came in his last 23 games.
A player finishing that much stronger than he started is the classic sophomore breakout profile. The adjustment already happened; the production followed.
The opportunity. The Rangers lost Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, which removes a great deal of offensive production and a great deal of competition for minutes. Even so, New York still has the pieces for a reasonably strong top six — and Perreault should be a significant part of it.
New trade acquisition Pavel Dorofeyev is the other half of that equation. Dorofeyev could find himself on the receiving end of a lot of Perreault setups on the Rangers’ top power-play unit, which is the kind of pairing that produces numbers for both players.
Projection. Top-six winger with power-play usage. If the last-23-games version is the real one, he’s a genuine breakout candidate.
Why the sophomore year is the interesting one
Rookie seasons are about whether a player belongs. Second seasons are about what he’ll actually be.
Every developmental arc looks different. Macklin Celebrini’s leap came in year two. Matthew Schaefer’s came immediately. Juraj Slafkovsky needed four years to reach 30 goals and 73 points. Utah’s Dylan Guenther never topped 27 goals in his first three seasons and then scored 40 in his fourth.
There’s no schedule. What there is, for both New York teams, is a group of players young enough that the next twelve months will tell you a great deal about the next five years.
Elsewhere in the class
Porter Martone, F — Philadelphia Flyers. The preseason Calder favorite and a Metro rival. He put up 25 goals and 25 assists in 35 games at Michigan State, then scored 15 points in 19 NHL games including the playoffs, averaging just under 17 minutes and 2.89 shots per game. At 19, 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, he’s the class’s most complete package.
Cole Hutson and Ilya Protas — Washington Capitals. Two more Metro rookies in the preseason top ten, at seventh and ninth, both squeezed by an offseason that added Jordan Kyrou and Alex Tuch ahead of them. Washington also has sophomore forward Ryan Leonard, who scored 20 goals and 45 points as a rookie.
Gavin McKenna, F — Toronto Maple Leafs. The first overall pick, ranked second in preseason Calder projections, and possibly skating on a second line with John Tavares and William Nylander.
The measure of the season
For the Islanders: whether Schaefer’s second year looks like Lane Hutson’s did, or like the cautionary tales.
For the Rangers: whether Perreault’s final six weeks were the beginning of something or the end of a hot stretch. Twenty-seven points is a fine rookie year. It’s not what New York needs from him now.
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